All about the wider issues that come out of the sustainability transitions including human rights
Back in 1998 the four largest US tobacco companies, and 52 state and territory attorneys general, signed what was boringly known as the Master Settlement Agreement. It changed the tobacco industry. Will social and environmental cases now working their way through the courts bring similar changes ?
We know that we need to act on climate mitigation but who should be taking the lead? I argue that the mitigation challenges primarily need a policy/societal response. There is still a lot that companies can do. But in many cases society must take the lead.
Much of the time it's right to argue that we need to focus on 'everything, everywhere, all at once'. But not always. Sometimes, when we look at sustainability challenges from an investor perspective, expecting new technology to solve our problems is too risky.
Are financial markets mis-pricing climate related risks? This is not just about global issues such as the macro impacts of climate change. It's just as much (if not more) about the very specific risks that individual companies face. It's these individual risks we also need to clearly identify.
Many people think that financial markets are not yet fully pricing in climate and other sustainability risks (& opportunities). How might this change? One possibility is time. The other is that early warning systems like insurance and debt costs kick in - these could be our canary in the coal mine.
For asset managers generating financial returns for their clients is not enough. It's more important that they 'beat the index'. Which means that as well as caring about valuation, they also really care about what 'the market' thinks. This can fundamentally change their response to sustainability.
It's easy to forget that as well as investing in renewables and EV's, we also need to invest to protect our economy (or company) against the negative impacts of climate change - what is commonly called climate adaptation. This is mostly to keep people cool, and to keep agriculture producing.
Like most of you I am rubbish at forecasting. Which is a problem if you believe (as I do) that the future will not look like the past. Extrapolating history can result in us investing in industries in decline. The good news is that we only need to get the direction of travel right, not the detail.
The financial implications of the sustainability transitions are becoming more important than ever. Over the last few years the pushback to sustainability has grown. We argue that the best counter is using the logic of long term value creation. Plus of course good old fashioned political lobbying.
We know that 'people are our biggest asset' but how do we include this in financial investment cases? Traditional financial accounts give only part of the picture (the result), not the how & the why. A framework from Felix Oberholzer-Gee at HBS can help us think about human capital like an investor.
We are increasingly reading about how many private insurance companies are massively increasing premiums, or withdrawing from some markets altogether. In some cases the government is taking up the slack, but in others it's companies via self insurance. Is this a risk investors should worry about?
We often mix up what as a society we need, with what we can afford. This is not about blocking sustainability actions. It's about identifying who needs to do what to make something actually happen. And we need to remember that not all decisions are purely financial.