What caught our eye - three key stories (week 17, 2024)
EV special : is this going to be the decade of the cheaper Chinese EV, the need for fast charging, and battery technology is changing.
Here are three stories that we found particularly interesting this week and why. We also give our lateral thought on each one.
This week we are trying something a bit different. We are going to focus on three aspects of just one story.
Earlier in the week the IEA published their 2024 Global EV outlook. This is a significant story for two reasons.
First, transport is a really important sector for decarbonisation. According to Our World in Data, transport accounts for around 20% of global CO2 emissions, with c. 75% coming from ground transport. So, a good problem to solve.
And second, its importance comes from the fact that we have a solution that reduces transport emissions, one that we know works. Along with decarbonization of our electricity network, transport is the most investible 'green' theme.
That solution is obviously Electric Vehicles. We can build them at scale, they are getting cheaper, and, assuming we decarbonise electricity generation, they can make a real difference. But, it can be complicated.
We are sure you will have seen a lot of coverage of the report. So, rather than rehash a summary, we have picked three aspects where we think a bit of thought is needed.
These are - how do we expand EVs outside of the current three big markets - is this the decade of the Chinese mass market EV, what is happening on EV charging, and advances in battery technology. What links them all, as with most things to do with EVs, is China.
Let us know what you think ...will EVs make the global jump to the mass market, as they have already done in China, or will they struggle to gain more traction. We think the former.
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EV sales growing - but where matters
Topic 1: Is this going to be the decade of the cheaper Chinese EV? And what might this mean for the market share and profitability of European and US OEMs?
The IEA report sets out the case for EV optimism. "Electric car sales could reach around 17 million in 2024, accounting for more than one in five cars sold worldwide. While tight margins, volatile battery metal prices, high inflation, and the phase-out of purchase incentives in some countries have sparked concerns about the industry’s pace of growth, but global sales remain strong."
In the first quarter of 2024, electric car sales grew by around 25% compared with the first quarter of 2023, similar to the year-on-year growth seen in the same period in 2022.
In 2024, the market share of electric cars could reach up to 45% in China, 25% in Europe and over 11% in the United States.
